Where’s the party?
Online Activity and the German Elections 

18.02.2025

Ahead of the German federal elections next Sunday, what can we learn about the parties’ online presence? Which platforms are they and their members using to communicate their messages? Although social media use has become more fractured and the related data harder to access in recent times, we are not completely in the dark. 

By far the most accessible platform for researchers is Bluesky. Thanks to their open API, we can see clear details of each party’s activities over time, with increasing usage by the Greens and Die Linke but little input from other parties and nothing at all from the German far-right party the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland). 

Figure 1: Daily Bluesky posts per German political party, 1st October 2024 to 14th February 2025  

What could be driving this apparent migration to Bluesky by members of these two parties? An obvious explanation is the increased prominence of far-right actors and content on Twitter/X since Elon Musk’s takeover, and in particular his role in the re-election and inauguration of Donald Trump in November 2024 and January 2025. We see a clear increase in Green and Die Linke posts around recent political events in the US, although the influence of domestic issues also cannot be ruled out. 

Speaking of Twitter/X, what can we learn about party activity there? Unlike Bluesky, access to their data has become highly restricted and expensive during the Musk era, leaving most researchers without a clear picture of the platform’s content since 2023. However, some enterprising institutes have created dashboards to provide an overview. 

First, bundesdatenschau.com shows tweet frequencies per party for set time periods (last three days, last week, last two weeks and so on). As the graph shows, for the two weeks up to 14th February, the far-right AfD party were more active on Twitter/X than the centre-left Greens, but only by a margin of a few tweets (75 vs 90). Though many Green MdBs have decided to spend their time elsewhere, the party themselves have clearly not rejected the use of Twitter/X. 

However, the full timeline of available tweets (January 2024 to February 2025) reveals a potential strategic error for left or centrist parties who remain on Twitter/X. Despite posting more tweets (x axis) over the past 12 months, the Greens receive only half as many likes (y axis) and retweets (bubble size) as the AfD, suggesting engagement with content from mainstream parties is much lower than for the far-right. It is also a sign that changes to the underlying algorithm and a significant shift in the userbase have created a more receptive audience for extremist content on the platform.

The Greens are not the biggest losers from changes to the Twitter/X algorithm and userbase. The small yellow dot to the right of the plot represents Christian Lindner’s FDP, who collapsed the coalition government late last year and now struggle to reach the 5% threshold in opinion polls. They appear to be applying the same tactical skills to their social media use, tweeting more frequently than any other party for fewer likes and retweets. Unlike the Greens and Die Linke, they also have not migrated to a more receptive platform but instead seem determined to seek favour with Musk (e.g. https://x.com/c_lindner/status/1870081931393581541?lang=en), despite his open support for the AfD. 

Other platforms are also restrictive with their data availability, but Projekt Sparta provides useful insights into TikTok and YouTube content, as well as party activities on Twitter/X.

Figure 4: (left) number of posts per German party by platform; (right) number of likes per German party by platform (Twitter, TikTok, YouTube), January 27th to February 14th 2025 (source: dtecbw.de/sparta/)

Although their donut charts are not the most intuitive to interpret, we can at least compare parties across all three platforms. While the AfD are the most active on both TikTok and YouTube, they are at least similar to other parties in being far more frequent users of Twitter/X (see left hand chart), perhaps because 280 characters are usually easier to produce than even a short video, and are a more natural form of communication for the generally older German political class. However, when it comes to user engagement, TikTok punches far above its weight, particularly in the case of Die Linke and, surprisingly given their relatively staid image, Olaf Scholz’s SPD. Both parties receive more likes via TikTok than any others, including the more active AfD.

The Meta platforms, chiefly Facebook and Instagram, are notable by their absence from this picture. Having set up a process for researchers to apply for access to their data under the provisions of the new EU Digital Services Act (DSA), we await news from successful applicants.

While the data which is available allows us to make some comparisons of usage across parties and also to inform guesses about user engagement, something is clearly lacking in its power to explain events in the wider world. As several parties fight for attention online, the considerably less active CDU and their Bavarian sister party CSU continue to lead the polls and will likely be the largest party in the next German government.